finance-based-pricing-advisor

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---
name: finance-based-pricing-advisor
argument-hint: "[pricing change to evaluate]"
description: Evaluate pricing changes using ARPU, conversion, churn risk, NRR, and payback. Use when deciding whether a pricing move should ship.
intent: >-
  Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.
type: interactive
best_for:
  - "Evaluating price increases, discounts, or new packaging"
  - "Estimating churn and conversion risk before a pricing change"
  - "Making a go/no-go call on monetization changes"
scenarios:
  - "Should we raise prices 15% for new customers next quarter?"
  - "Evaluate a new premium tier for our SaaS product"
  - "Help me assess whether an annual discount will improve revenue"
theme: finance-metrics
estimated_time: "20-30 min"
---


## Purpose

Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.

**What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.

**What this is NOT:** Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future `pricing-strategy-suite` skills.

This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.

## Input

**Works best with:** The pricing change on the table — increase, new tier, add-on, or discount — and current pricing.
**Also useful:** Current ARPU/ARPA, conversion and churn baselines, NRR, and who's pushing for the change.

Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended `ARGUMENTS:` line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

**Arriving empty-handed? That works too.** The advisor opens by asking what change is proposed and what today's pricing looks like.

**Example invocation:** `Evaluate raising our Pro plan from $49 to $59/seat; ARPU $52, monthly logo churn 1.8%, NRR 108%.`

## Key Concepts

### The Pricing Impact Framework

A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:

1. **Revenue Impact** — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?
   - Direct revenue lift from price increase
   - Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
   - Net revenue impact

2. **Conversion Impact** — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?
   - Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
   - Better packaging may improve conversion
   - Test assumptions

3. **Churn Risk** — Will existing customers leave due to price change?
   - Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
   - Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
   - Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)

4. **Expansion Impact** — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?
   - New premium tier = upsell path
   - Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
   - Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities

5. **CAC Payback Impact** — Does pricing change affect unit economics?
   - Higher ARPU = faster payback
   - Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
   - Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio

### Pricing Change Types

**Direct monetization changes:**
- Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
- New premium tier (create upsell path)
- Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
- Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)

**Discount strategies:**
-